As China goes, so goes the world
As I continue to explore and learn more about China, I am truly
convinced that’s China’s future and that of the rest of the world
are inevitably linked. It’s economy has been relatively
unaffected by the current international economic crisis (some
of which is due to a fixed exchange rate, much to my own
frustration), as it continues to grow at a blistering rate. However,
we all know that 9% annual gains in GDP are unsustainable.
Thus, the time and manor in which its economy slows is
extremely important, and will have a great impact on the world’s
economy. Some would argue that human rights and freer markets
are they key, but myself and many others agree that the
environment and energy are going to make or break China.
Everyone knows that China is now the number one consumer
of energy in the world. In order to continue growing and building
a larger middle class, China is going to have to make most of
that energy renewable or face a countryside that resembles
Mordor. And given that China has 1.4 billion people, give or take,
it’s no easy task to produce and distribute that kind of energy.
However, if China can do it, and do it well, it will become the
superpower that many believe it is poised to be. If not, it will
forever associated with cheap labor, cheap products, and rivers
without life.
I’m not going to offer any policy solutions, as I’m not qualified
or informed enough to do so. So, let me explain why I feel that
as China goes, so goes the world. If, in the next century, China
is able produce a sustainable environment where ecosystems
are kept in tact, resources are not over-depleted, and abundant
green house gas emissions are a thing of the past, then I believe
that a similar set of circumstances would be present in most
other countries around the world. If more than a billion people
under one government can create a sustainable model for
development, then it should be possible to implement similar
policies almost anywhere. Conversely, if China is in terrible
shape, I would bet that India, Indonesia, and Mexico won’t be
much better off.
Of course, as an American, I want the USA to succeed and
continue to be a global leader. However, it is naive to think that
if China doesn’t become stronger and more stable, that it is good
for America in any way. A vibrant healthy China is a must for
future global stability and growth.
- Adam